The research, which analyzed the global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS among 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 and forecasted trends to 2050, highlighted a mixed landscape of achievements and challenges in the battle against this global epidemic.

Between 2010 and 2021, new HIV infections decreased from 2.1 million to 1.7 million, and HIV-related deaths decreased from 1.2 million to 718,000. Despite this progress, researchers found regional variation in the HIV response and forecast the world is not on track to meet UNAIDS 2030 targets to cut new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%.

Sub-Saharan Africa leads the world in cutting new HIV infections and deaths from the disease

The global decline in HIV incidence is largely driven by sub-Saharan Africa, where the likelihood of getting HIV over a lifetime has fallen by 60% since its peak in 1995. This region also achieved the largest decrease in population without a suppressed level of HIV (PUV), from 19.7 million people in 2003 to 11.3 million people in 2021.

In contrast, the lifetime probability of HIV acquisition increased from 0.4% to 2.8% between 1995 and 2021, while PUV rose from 310,000 people to 680,000 people between 2003 and 2021 in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

“The world has made remarkable global progress to significantly reduce the number of new HIV infections and lives lost to the disease, yet there are remaining challenges to overcome,” said Dr. Hmwe Kyu, IHME Associate Professor and study author. “More than a million people acquire a new HIV infection each year and, of the 40 million people living with HIV, a quarter are not receiving treatment,” she added.

Despite progress, UNAIDS’s HIV infection reduction and AIDS-related deaths 2030 targets won’t be met

Although substantial progress has been made against HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality, the world is not on target to meet the UN’s 2030 targets to reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%.

The number of people living with HIV is expected to peak at 44.4 million by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease to 43.4 million people by 2050.

“The global community must make sustained and substantive efforts to sharpen the focus on prevention, optimize access to antiretroviral therapy, and make HIV testing widely available to achieve prompt diagnosis and linkage to care,” said Dr. Kyu.

New cases of HIV, and deaths associated with the disease, are expected to continue to decrease globally. However, long-term increases have been forecast in North Africa and the Middle East, where only 67% of people living with HIV are aware of their status, 50% access ART, and 45% are virally suppressed.

“Although new HIV infections and HIV-related mortality have fallen globally, they are increasing in several nations and regions. Our analysis is designed to inform countries’ sustained response to HIV that includes expanded access to lifesaving antiretroviral therapy (ART), effective prevention options, and innovative care models,” said Austin Carter, IHME Research Scientist.

The study authors set a series of recommendations to sustain and invigorate the global HIV response, including the strengthening of the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and other similar public health programs dedicated to HIV control, as well as the expansion of prevention services, with a multitude of existing and emerging technologies. Additionally, interventions and care delivery models that work must be studied and implemented effectively and equitably, with special emphasis on measuring progress and addressing remaining gaps in our collective goal of ending the HIV epidemic.

The findings and recommendations from the new study by the GBD 2021 HIV collaborators serve as a call to action for governments, health care providers, and the global community to renew their commitment to ending the HIV epidemic. Only through sustained, comprehensive, and equitable efforts will the world be able to achieve the UNAIDS 2030 targets and ultimately eradicate HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.